Author: Larry Cohen
Date of publish: 06/01/2010
Level: All Levels
In this series, we are analyzing 1,000,000 deals which were played on-line. These deals cover a wide range of level of play and were provided by Stephen Pickett with Bridge Browser.
I know that this question will remind people of "The LAW of Total Tricks," but I am innocently asking:
On any given deal, what is the most likely division of the 13 tricks?
Answer: 9 and 4
The most likely number of tricks to be taken (by the declaring side) is 9 -- it happens 21% of the time.
Close behind (in second place) is 10 tricks -- on 20 % of all deals played.
The full table is below (note: "0" includes deals which were passed out)
# Tricks by Declaring SIDE
|
%
|
0 |
1.52
|
1 |
.02
|
2 |
.05
|
3 |
.13 |
4 |
.54 |
5 |
1.81 |
6 |
4.84 |
7 |
10.02 |
8 |
16.19 |
9 |
21.01 |
10 |
20.21 |
11 |
14.13 |
12 |
7.26 |
13 |
2.27 |
Next month -- THE OPENING BID (which is most likely, how often is 1NT opened, etc.)