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3-2 or 4-1?

3-2 or 4-1?

This deal is from a Swiss Team match at the 2013 Orlando Regional.

Vulnerable against not, South held: bridge card suitAQ976
bridge card suitAK63
bridge card suit84
bridge card suitK4.

His LHO opened 1bridge card suit, which was followed by a 2bridge card suit overcall. After RHO's pass, South bid 2bridge card suit. It is important to know if your partnership plays this call as forcing (if not, South would have to find a different call). I prefer new suits to be forcing after a 2-level overcall. After 2bridge card suit, South's partner jumped to 4bridge card suit! What's this? It must be a splinter bid, showing spade support and short hearts. South now used RKC and upon learning that only 1 keycard was missing, he bid 6bridge card suit.

bridge card suitK43
bridge card suit2
bridge card suitAKQ1073
bridge card suit876
bridge card suitAQ976
bridge card suitAK63
bridge card suit84
bridge card suitK4

West led the bridge card suitQ.Surely, from West's opening bid, the bridge card suitA is wrong. Declarer has to focus on both the spades and diamonds. If both suits are 3-2, there are 13 easy tricks. The next logical thought should be, "What if both suits are not 3-2?"

If diamonds are 4-1, the suit can be set up by ruffing one, but that would then require an entry (so, spades would need to be 3-2 and would have to be drawn ending in dummy).

If spades are 4-1, the suit can be picked up in some situations. For example, if West was dealt a singleton jack or ten, declarer could lay down the ace, then cross to the king and take a marked finesse to the 9.

With all that in mind, what is the best way to play this slam?

The winning play is to try to combine as many chances as possible. Win the bridge card suitA and lay down the bridge card suitA. Assume nothing interesting happens (no jack or ten). Continue with the bridge card suitQ. If one player has J10xx, you are probably down. But, everyone follows, so you are alive. What next?

If diamonds are also 3-2, you will soon claim, so you have to again ask, "what if diamonds are 4-1?"  The answer is that if the player with one diamond happens to have only 2 spades, you can still make the contract. Don't draw the last trump yet. Play two top diamonds. If everyone follows, play the bridge card suitK and claim. If the suit is 4-1 (and you are lucky enough that nobody could ruff in), you can now trump a small diamond in hand (to set up the suit) and then cross to the bridge card suitK to run the diamonds and make 12 tricks (5 spades, 5 diamonds and the bridge card suitAK).

This was the Real Deal from Orlando:

Vul: North-South
Dir:West
bridge card suitK43
bridge card suit2
bridge card suitAKQ1073
bridge card suit876
bridge card suitJ8
bridge card suitQJ10975
bridge card suit2
bridge card suitAQJ9
bridge card suit1052
bridge card suit84
bridge card suitJ965
bridge card suit10532
bridge card suitAQ976
bridge card suitAK63
bridge card suit84
bridge card suitK4

After laying down the top two spades, declarer played as suggested to make his contract. The full deal shows that West could have made a spectacular falsecard. On declarer's bridge card suitA,  what if West were to throw the bridge card suitJ (which couldn't hurt). Now, declarer might take the bait and play for 4-1 spades. If he next crossed to the bridge card suitK, he would no longer be able to make the contract. Try it!