How Many Tricks?


Author: Larry Cohen
Date of publish: 06/01/2010
Level: All Levels

In this series, we are analyzing 1,000,000 deals which were played on-line. These deals cover a wide range of level of play and were provided by Stephen Pickett with Bridge Browser.

 
I know that this question will remind people of "The LAW of Total Tricks," but I am innocently asking:



On any given deal, what is the most likely division of the 13 tricks?


Answer: 9 and 4


The most likely number of tricks to be taken (by the declaring side) is 9 -- it happens 21% of the time.

Close behind (in second place) is 10 tricks -- on 20 % of all deals played.

 

The full table is below (note: "0" includes deals which were passed out)


 
 # Tricks
by Declaring
SIDE
%
 01.52
 1.02
 2.05
 3 .13
 4 .54
 5 1.81
 6 4.84
 7 10.02
 8 16.19
 9 21.01
 10 20.21
 11 14.13
 12 7.26
 13 2.27

Next month -- THE OPENING BID  (which is most likely, how often is 1NT opened, etc.)