Vul:NS Dlr: East	J104  KQ10  Q9532  95
876  J974  104  KQ76		KQ32  A862  87  J42
	A95  53  AKJ6  A1083

This real deal comes courtesy of Mark Farris from Chicago. 

The Bidding 

With 16 highcard points, South has a one notrump opening bid. This does not promise all four suits stopped. If South were to open one of a minor, he would be stuck on his next bid. West passes (East-West won’t be coming into this auction). How should North respond? North has eight high card points, but should invite game. With two tens and also a five-card suit, the North hand is worth approximately nine to ten total points. Assuming that no fancy conventions are being played, the two notrump raise shown is the way to invite three notrump. South has 16 which is in the middle of the range, but when your points are made up mostly of aces and kings, your hand is worth a little more. Also, South has two decent four-card suits which is also valuable. Yes, I am a little concerned about the heart suit, but let's go with three notrump as shown.

The Opening Lead

Usually, against  notrump, we try to lead a major. That is because if the opponents had an eight-card major suit fit they would have found it. Conversely, when we lead a minor, that easily could be into their eight-card or longer fit. So, instead of leading a club, I would choose between spades and hearts. 876 is not really a “sequence” as far as opening leads are concerned. If I had 1098 of spades, I think I would lead one. But, with only three small spades, I am going to choose to lead fourth best from my heart suit. Still, this is a bit of a guess and really any lead (other than a diamond) is plausible.

Trick One

South will be pleased by the dummy. Not only will there be five diamond tricks, but there is lots of help in the way of stoppers in the heart suit. Declarer can count five diamonds, at least one heart, and two aces for eightsure tricks. There are chances for more tricks in every suit other than diamonds. Declarer should play the king (or queen) of hearts from dummy. Playing the 10 puts too many eggs into one basket right away. If the 10 were to lose to the jack, the defense would set up the heart suit quite easily.

East needs to make a very good play on the first trick and to do so in relatively normal tempo. If East wins the ace of hearts, that will remove all suspense in the heart suit. Declarer will easily have a second heart trick (finessing the ten) and will have at least nine tricks in all. East's best play is to encourage calmly, letting dummy win the first trick. This sets up a situation where declarer might later misguess in the heart suit. There will be no way to know which defender has the ace and which has the jack; perhaps declarer will play low to the other high honor on the next round, playing the opening leader to have the ace. If so, declarer gets only one heart trick.

The rest of the play

 After the heart wins in dummy, what next? The best chance for a ninth trick (other than hearts) is the spade suit. Declarer has a 75% chance by taking two finesses. Since he will need two dummy entries, he shouldn’t run diamonds first (using up his entry for a potential second spade finesse). So, at trick two, let’s say the spade jack is played. South does have some fear that the finesse will lose to West (a bit of a “danger hand”) since on another low heart from West, declarer will need to guess. However, as we can see, East has both high spades. East likely covers the first one and wins the second round. East can’t get at dummy’s hearts, so might switch to clubs. Declarer will likely grab the ace and run for home with nine tricks. Bidding and making three notrump is a good result for North-South.

Lesson Points

1) With 15-17 balanced, open 1NT even if you don’t have all four suits stopped.
2) When inviting in notrump, add (not full points, but something) for 10’s and 9’s as well as for five-card suits.
3) When trying to decide to accept a game invitation, if you are in the middle of your previously announced range, you should accept if most of your points are in aces and kings.
4) When dummy has KQ10 of a suit, declarer often faces a guess for the ace and jack. If you grab the ace on the first round (from either position), it removes that guess.
5) A suit missing only the king-queen gives declarer a 75% chance for an extra trick (only when both the king and queen are “offside” will the defense be able to take two tricks).