Another 2-way Finesse

Author: Larry Cohen
Date of publish: 07/01/2021
Level: Intermediate to Advanced

In an online Seniors (yes...sigh) event, I held this hand:

♠ AJ  
♥ K10976  
♦ AK6  
♣ 876.
 

Of course I opened 1NT (almost every teacher/writer today is on board with opening 15-17 balanced this way, even with a 5-card major). Partner raised to 3NT and the ♠3 was led.

♠ K762
♥ Q82
♦ J32
♣ A42
 
♠ AJ
♥ K10976
♦ AK6
♣ 876

In notrump, we count top tricks. This lead provides 3 in spades to go with AK-A in the minors. That makes 6, and 3 heart tricks will get the total to 9. Even with a misguess for the ♠J, there are still decent chances. Aside from clubs, everything is well stopped. Even with a heart misguess, the stoppers will hold up unless there is a club switch and the player with the long clubs has a heart entry.

There is no sure thing here, as we can't know where the ♠J is. Let's say you play low from dummy and win East's ♠10 with the jack. You should play hearts next, but what about the 2-way guess for the ♠J? Should you lead low to the ♠Q, or start out by finessing against West for the ♠J?

In a "vacuum" (no considerations outside the heart suit), low to the queen is best. You wouldn't want to lose on the first round to East's singleton jack. But, we are not in a vacuum. I decided to lead the ♠10 at trick 2 and when West played low, I let it run.

Why? Let's say it loses to the jack. East is likely to return partner's suit (a club switch might be tough to find). If a spade is returned, I am home-free with 9 tricks. I'd win the spade return and play more hearts; 9 easy tricks. Meanwhile, if the finesse wins, life is easy (just repeat the finesse).

Why is this better than playing hearts the other way? It is a matter of entries. Say you play a heart to the queen at trick 2. Whether or not it wins, there are entry problems looming. Say the ♠Q wins and then you play a heart to the ten and jack. Now, if the defense shifts to clubs, you can't untangle the spades. There will be no entry to the 9th trick, dummy's ♠K.

By keeping the ♠Q8 (running the ♠10 at trick 2), you keep a sure dummy entry to untangle all 9 of your tricks. If the ♠10 loses to the jack, you claim on a spade return, but also might survive a club return. This is the Real Deal:

Vul:South
Dlr: Both
♠ K762
♥ Q82
♦ J32
♣ A42
 
♠ Q953
♥ AJ4
♦ Q87
♣ QJ9
  ♠ 1084
♥ 53
♦ 10954
♣ K1053
  ♠ AJ
♥ K10976
♦ AK6
♣ 876
 

When the ♠10 won at trick 2, all was good. Notice that a heart to the queen and then a losing finesse will lead to defeat (assuming West finds the club switch). Often a 2-way guess hinges on safe/danger hand, but in this case it was a matter of entries.